Habitat and Biodiversity Loss Projections by 2050

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

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Habitat and Biodiversity Loss Projections by 2050

 

  • Habitat loss caused by land use change will lead, with high certainty, to continuing decline in the local and global diversity of some taxa, especially vascular plants.
  • Habitat conversion between 1970 and 2050 ranges from 13% to 20% (IMAGE model), leading to local and global extinctions as populations approach equilibrium with the remnant habitat.
  • Analysis using the well-established species-area relationship indicates that the number of species lost at equilibrium (that is, the number of species that can be supported by the habitat remaining by 2050) is likely to be approximately 10–15% of the species present in 1970, and other factors such as overharvesting, invasive species, pollution, and climate change will further increase the rate of extinction.

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